Monte Carlo Simulation & Excel Addin
Exclusive to Différence
Designed and programmed by Difference for the specific needs of the industry.
Download the addin
Use this link to obtain the self-contained 1 Mo file (no admin permissions required).
Installation instructions
The installation instructions will assist you in the set up of the Excel addin.
Change Point Analysis
In today’s environment, we are often buried under data ranging from sales and production figures to absenteeism and accident rates. Fundamental questions we try to answer when we look at a key performance indicator or historical data are: Did changes occur? When? What was their amplitude? Are we improving our performance? Are we sure?
The change point analysis, a versatile tool minimally affected by outliers, can analyze almost any kind of data. It identifies the moment a shift in mean was observed, the magnitude of the shift and the probability the shift is not a ‘real’ shift but just a pattern observed by chance.
Basic Statistical Analyses
In order to make basic statistical tools accessible and easy to use, we suggest an Excel-based tool showing only the essentials in an easy-to-interpret format. Some of its features are:
- Edit your data using the standard functionalities of Excel
- Get the descriptive statistics of one variable
- Build Individuals Control Chart
- Perform a capability analysis for normal data
- Test one, two means or more means (t-test, ANOVA)
- Compare paired observations
- Perform linear regression and residual analysis
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Features of Différence's Addin
Analysis with 1 variable
- Descriptive statistics, box plot, histogram, capability analysis, quantiles
- ImR and EWMA control charts with the Western Electric decision rules
- Change Point Analysis (CPA): automatic detection of historical changes in the mean (explanations here)
- Statistical tests on: average, standard deviation, autocorrelation, and confidence intervals
Pareto Analysis
- Most frequent classes with cumulative curve - find the 80/20 items!
- Use weights to assess relative importance
Distribution Fitting
- For simulations: Exponential, Lognormal, Normal, Triangular, Uniform, Weibull, etc.
- Use weights to assess relative importance
- Sample from known parameters to get the shape and properties
Time Series Forecasting
- Time series diagnosis: stability of the mean, autocorrelation, detection of cycles
- Holt-Winters double exponential seasonal smoothing (also called triple exponential)
- Autoregressive PLS: robust autoregressive and seasonal models
Means comparison and ANOVA
- T Test for two independent groups and for paired observations
- F-test for several groups with Boneferroni all pairs comparison
- Power and sample size calculations using non-central T and F distributions
Simple Regression (one X)
- Correlation and density ellipse
- Linear regression, with polynomial term and standard transforms, residual analysis
- Nonlinear regression: built-in power law, exponential, growth & logistic S-shape models
Contingency Analysis
- Mosaic Plot to analyze crossed frequencies (Marimekko chart)
- 2D Frequency table - find the 80/20 items!
- Use weights to assess relative importance
Plan a Measurement System Analysis
- Design the experiment: specify testers and samples
- Prepare the design: add replicates and randomize trials
- Generate data collection sheet with multiple measurements for the same treatment
Analyze Measurement System Results
- Variance decomposition: unbalanced random effect ANOVA, handling of negative variances
- Results visualization: multi-vari plots, S control chart, interaction plot
- Measurement usefulness: increment diagnosis, comparison to total or historical variation
- Risk analysis: Monte-Carlo simulation to design acceptance limits and understand decision-making risk
Monte-Carlo Simulation on Excel
- Decision variables or assumptions: choice of statistical distributions, truncation limits
- Calculated responses: random white noise, specification limits, user-defined formulas
- Random sampling: pure random or Latin hypercube on probabilities
- Statistical reports: histograms, descriptive statistics, capability analysis, variable influence ranking
- No programming required!
Optimization Solver
- Solver for bounded, constrained, nonlinear, nonconvex, non-differentiable problems
- Black-box optimization with several continuous, discrete and ordering variables
- Implementation of the MADS algorithm (mesh adaptive direct searches, derivative-free)
- Other methods: simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, Nelder-Mead, Fletcher-Reeves
- Initial exploratory random search to seek for good starting points
- Robust default values for all algorithmic parameters
Additional Tools
- Workbook navigation: in-ribbon organize list of sheets
- Workbook explorer: list sheets grouped by analysis type
- Confidence interval calculator on: mean, standard deviation, proportion, capability, tolerance
- Date picker: visual selection of dates in calendar widget
- Print our email active sheet in one click
- Easy access to local help file, or download it
Flexible Cloud-Based Licensing
- Acquire and release a license from a pool (need internet connection)
- Share licenses between devices and users
- Addin updates are automatically licensed (with annual subscription)